EUR/USD Weekly Analysis 28 February 2017

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This week, investors will be waiting to hear Trump’s speech in Congress, which should focus on policy agenda, infrastructure reforms, tax cuts, immigration policy and Obama care, all of which need to be addressed after his six weeks in office. However, many analysts argue that the risk of investor disappointment is very high.

Another point of interest this week will be FOMC member’s speeches, with the Fed’s chair Yellen taking center stage, after the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed a ‘’relatively soon’’ stance from committee’s members about the next rate hiking.

Finally, the inflation and labor market report of the Eurozone should garner some interest, due to upcoming ECB interest rate decision of next Thursday, with inflation expected to be higher, while the unemployment rate anticipated to remain the same.

 

Weekly Economic Calendar (GMT+2)

The crucial announcements for this week are following:

Wednesday 01 March 2017

Australian economic growth report at 02:30

Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI at 03:00

Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI at 03:45

US President Trump Congress speech at 04:00

German manufacturing PMI at 10:55

German labor market report at 10:55

Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI at 11:00

U. K’s manufacturing PMI at 11:30

German 10 –Year bund auction at 12:35

German CPI at 15:00

US’s personal spending at 15:30

Jens Weidmann (President of Deutsche Bundesbank ) speech at 15:30

US’s manufacturing PMI at 16:45

ISM Manufacturing PMI at 17:00

Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision at 17:00

Crude Oil Inventories report at 17:30

Thursday 02 March 2017

Australian trade balance at 02:30

10 – Year Japanese Government Bonds Auction at 05:45

Switzerland’s economic growth report at 08:45

Switzerland’s retail sales report at 10:15

U. K’s construction PMI at 11:30

Eurozone’s inflation and labor market reports at 12:00

Initial jobless claims at 15:30

Canadian economic growth report at 15:30

Friday 03 March 2017

Japanese inflation and labor market data at 01:30

Chinese caixin services PMI at 03:45

German retail sales at 09:00

German services PMI at 10:55

Eurozone’s services PMI at 11:00

U. K’s services PMI at 11:30

Eurozone’s retail sales at 12:00

US’s services PMI at 16:45

US’s ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI at 17:00

Janet Yellen (Chairwoman of Federal Reserve System) speech at 20:00

CHARTING

The crucial points are:

1

The price of EUR/USD has fallen fiercely in last Tuesday’s session, with the price finding strong support at 1.05340 level on Wednesday, a level where the price met the rising trendline, resulting from the FOMC minutes release, which proved to be negatively for the US Dollar. Currently, the chart is not indicating which direction the price will follow, with many players holding off until Trump’s speech on Wednesday morning.

Charting outcome: Neutral

INDICATORS (computerized T.A)

The crucial points are:

2

3

The indicators are signaling that a downtrend has occurred. The moving averages slopes have remained the same, while both the negative and the positive dynamic have marginally risen. The trend dynamic has increased by +15.22%, whilst the market’s volatility has marginally decreased by -2.56%. Finally, the oscillators have remained in marginally oversold levels.

Indicators outcome: Marginally bearish – Neutral      

CONCLUSION

Both indicators and charting seem to confirm that the market is possible to follow the neutral path. Although, the indicators are providing strong arguments, which suggests, the marginally bearish path as well. Should the price break lower than 1.05340 level, the next support could occur at 1.04022 level. On the contrary, if the price appreciates higher than 1.06744 level, the price will find the next resistance at 1.07701 level.

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