EUR/USD Weekly Analysis 07 March 2017

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The announcements that investors’ will be watching closely this week are the following:

USA Employment Market report – Non Farm Payrolls (NFP): Janet Yellen’s (Chairwoman of Federal Reserve System) speech was received with positivity, leading to the growth of speculation that the FOMC is likely to raise interest rates in their meeting on the 15th March 2017. However, as she mentioned, the rate hiking will happen only if the inflation and labour market meets the committee’s targets. The expectation for NFP is to be printed out lower than previous recording.

ECB monetary policy decision: The inflation report of the Eurozone published last Thursday showed that inflation has risen to 2.0%, the highest level since February 2013. It is expected that interest rates will be unchanged at 0.00%. However, the key aspect of the policy will be delivered in the press conference, where we anticipate to hear insights about the Q.E program continuation.

Chinese Fundamental data announcements: The trade balance report on Wednesday is expected to deliver a lower surplus, whilst the inflation report on Thursday, is possible to deliver a falling of CPI.     

 

Weekly Economic Calendar (GMT+2)

The important announcements for this week are the following:

Tuesday 07 March 2017

Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision at 05:30

German factory orders at 09:00

U. K’s Halifax House Price index at 10:30

Eurozone’s GDP at 12:00

USA’s trade balance at 15:30

Canadian trade balance at 15:30

Canadian Ivey PMI at 17:00

Wednesday 08 March 2017

Japanese economic growth report at 01:50

Chinese Trade balance report at 04:45

German industrial production at 09:00

Switzerland’s CPI at 10:15

ADP Non – Farm employment change at 15;15

Crude oil inventories report at 17:30

USA 10 – Year Note Auction at 20:00   

Thursday 09 March 2017

Chinese inflation report at 03:30

Switzerland’s labour market report at 08:45

European Central Bank monetary policy decision at 14:45

USA’s exports and imports price index at 15:30

Initial Jobless claims at 15:30

ECB press conference at 15:30

Canadian New housing price index at 15:30

Friday 10 March 2017

German trade balance at 09:00

U. K’s industrial and manufacturing production at 11:30

U. K’s trade balance report at 11:30

USA’s employment market report – NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) at 15:30

Canadian employment market report at 15:30

CHARTING

The crucial points are:

1

The EUR/USD, after three consecutive sessions of decline, was met by strong support at 1.05067 level, a level where it bounced off and within a single session it covered the lost ground from the previous negative sessions. The reason for this fierce rise could be attributed to the speech given by the Fed’s chair. However, this positive sentiment is possible to change, when the data for US Labor market prints on Wednesday and Friday. Charting outcome: Neutral – Marginally bullish  

INDICATORS (computerized T.A)

The crucial points are:

2

3

The indicators are signaling that a weak downtrend has occurred, which is possible to become weaker. The moving averages slopes have remained the same, while the spread between the negative and the positive dynamic have tightened. The trend dynamic has marginally fallen by -6.97%, as well as the market’s volatility falling by -3.94%. Finally, the oscillators have passed into marginally overbought territories.

Indicators outcome: Marginally bearish – Neutral      

CONCLUSION

Both indicators and charting seem to confirm that the market is possible to follow the neutral path. Should the price break lower than 1.05067 level, the next support could occur at 1.04065 level. On the contrary, if the price appreciates higher than 1.06756 level, the price will find the next resistance at 1.07658 level.

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